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Home values and rents by ZIP code: reading the numbers

Two public sources describe home values by ZIP code: the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, with median home values and rents from a five-year survey, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index, which measures how prices changed. Neither is the value of one house, and neither is a forecast.

Updated . General information, not legal advice: the city’s code and its planning staff decide for your lot.

Census median home value and rent

The American Community Survey asks a sample of households every year; the five-year estimates pool five years of answers so that small areas have enough of them. Its areas are ZIP Code Tabulation Areas, the Census Bureau’s close approximation of ZIP codes. The median home value is what owners say their home would sell for; the median gross rent is the rent plus the utilities the tenant pays.

Example

Each estimate comes with a margin of error, which the Census Bureau publishes at 90% confidence. For an invented ZIP code:

Median home value$310,000 ± $18,000
Likely range (90%)$292,000 to $328,000
Very high values are top-coded: above a ceiling the Census reports only “or more”. Two ZIP codes whose ranges overlap may not differ at all.

FHFA’s house price index

The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s ZIP code index follows the same homes over time, from their sales and refinance appraisals, for mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It is published once a year, FHFA calls it developmental, and it measures change, not price: an index of 150 against 100 five years earlier means prices rose about 50% for the homes in its sample.

What they cannot tell you

  • The value of one house: a ZIP code mixes small houses and large ones. For a value, look at comparable recent sales or order an appraisal.
  • The future: neither source makes a forecast.
  • The last few months: the survey and the index run a year or more behind.
  • Every ZIP code: a small one may have too few answers or sales for an estimate.

How the Lot Report shows them

The Lot Report shows, for the address’s ZIP code, the Census median home value and gross rent with their margins of error and survey years, and FHFA’s index for the latest year and the five years before. It labels them as figures for the area, not a value for the lot, and makes no forecast.

Questions

Why is the Census median different from today’s listing prices?

The Census median is what all owners in the area say their homes are worth, pooled over five years, including homes that have not sold in decades. Listings and recent sales describe only the homes on the market now.

How often are the numbers updated?

Each once a year: the Census Bureau releases new five-year estimates, and FHFA a new year of its ZIP code index.

Is a ZIP code the same as a Census ZIP Code Tabulation Area?

Nearly. A ZIP code is a set of postal routes; the Census Bureau draws a tabulation area from the blocks most of whose addresses share the ZIP code, so the edges can differ a little.

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